Woke up last weekend to the reality that the electioneering process has started, well for one, the test of our democracy will begin with an end to intolerance, violence and hatred. Election should be championed and won on strength of ideological differences not on whose thug is best armed. Claims and counter claims of intimidation, incarceration of political opponent using the power of incumbency has been so widespread that I sincerely hope the cases of discontent that end up with the judiciary would be minimal and not derail the handover plan.
Elective posts are up for grabs at local, state and federal government level but at this stage, the one that touches the heart and soul of every Nigerian is the fight for the highest seat in the land, the Presidency. Various contestants are laying claim to being the best candidate and this they do by pointing to previous achievements either in public or private practices. What I would be doing is using the SWOT ANALYSIS to help put each of the front-runners under the spotlight. Do they really have anything to offer or just an empty barrel making the loudest noise and seeking political office for money-making venture?
The swot analysis is a strategic planning tool which simply means analysing an organisation or individual using the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat open to it. The strength would show the characteristics of the team (president and vice president) that place them at advantage over their competition while the weaknesses are the things that place the team at a disadvantage over their competition. Opportunity would be dealing with chances available to make a statement and lastly threats seek to look at external elements in the environment that seeks to cause trouble for the team.
JONATHAN GOODLUCK AND NNAMADI SAMBO
STRENGTH: As the incumbent, the team enjoy being at the helm of affairs and also with the party that has been in power for the past twelve years. They have shown by their campaign few could muster the access to funds to dislodge them from the exalted seat. Jonathan is seen as an element of luck, has never contested an election as the main flag bearer but at every level and post he has been in since 1999 (deputy governor and vice president) he has succeeded his masters due to reasons which include – corruption charges, death and by being ‘loyal’. The option of Sambo as the vice president gives a sense of stability and continuity.
WEAKNESS: Yaradua the former boss of Jonathan was seen a slow leader, always stalling on issues and that assertion shielded the current president on so many front with regards to his capability on the job. It is alarming to note that the same can be said of President Jonathan since he took over the mantle of leadership. Government policies, passage and signing of bills, effectiveness of governance has been moving at a very slow pace. Patiently the citizenry continue to live on promises and are starting to look at alternatives.
OPPORTUNITY: As an individual that has experienced leadership and around the corridors of power for the past twelve years, Jonathan stands head and shoulder-high above his contemporaries to deliver to the people and electorates their yearnings and aspirations. Within his grasp is the opportunity to change the perception of continuous bad leadership that has been plaguing the country as a whole for ages
THREAT: A perception of having robbed the northerners the chance to continue with the presidency of the deceased former President, Musa Yaradua despite the internal 2 terms rotational arrangement of the ruling People’s Democratic Party is an issue that has remain unresolved and everyone waits with baited breath to see if the new alliance and strategy would backfire. Jonathan has been seen as a loyal person but with this event, the world now sees that power-hungry instinct in the ‘loyalty cloud’ of the president.
NUHU RIBADU AND FOLA ADEOLA
STRENGTH: Flying the banner of the Action Congress of Nigeria is the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Corruption Commission of Nigeria (EFCC), with his vice a technocrat and former Managing Director of Guaranty Trust Bank. Together they bring dynamism, impetus, youthfulness and freshness to the polity. Although perceived to have done the bidding of His former benefactor in the person of former president Obasanjo, Ribadu was able to bring to fore the seriousness of corruption in Nigeria by rigorously going after private and public government officials even those that were perceived as untouchables. Adeola’s track record at the helm of affairs of one of the best banks in Nigeria is enviable and speaks volume of what might be expected.
WEAKNESS: The perception of carrying out selective justice and clamping the wheels of outspoken critic of the former president is an albatross that would always hang over the head of Ribadu while his running mate is seen as untested in a political terrain that is noted for its notoriety and a polity different from the structured and disciplined environment of the private establishment. Ability to work together is an important factor that ranks so high considering the fact that Fola Adeola was not the first choice running mate.
OPPORTUNITY: The pair represents a shift in ideology and orientation of main stream political strategy in Nigeria. A risk it might seem but after showing they are able to hold their own from previous endeavours the opportunity that presents itself to these two is so enormous that one hopes they won’t be overwhelmed if voice and mandate is given to their course.
THREAT: Several northerners are running for the presidency hoping that they enjoy sympathy vote because of the death of former northern president who failed to finish his term. This will definitely lead to fractioning of block votes that would have been enjoyed by a single candidate. How this will affect the chances of Ribadu cannot be swept under the carpet or over emphasised. Through its access to massive funds, the ruling PDP have made it clear by its various publicity and campaign strategy it would not give up the seat of power without a fight.
MOHAMMADU BUHARI AND TUNDE BAKARE:
STRENGTH: A former military Head of State and a fiery pastor, both are strong-willed and hard liners, attributes some analyst think is required by a team who wants to rule the state called Nigeria. Buhari enjoys cult followership in the northern region and seems to be one of the VERY few public servants who retire from service without millions in foreign account to show for it. Bakare on the other hand is a vocal critic of past corrupt government and has used His pulpit at every given opportunity for that purpose. Their passion for a vibrant, strong and progressive Nigeria if put to good use can help lead this country out of this Quagmire
WEAKNESS: This team is seen as a time bomb waiting to explode and an alliance termed unstable in so many quarters. Two religious hardliners from different faith, one wonders what the game plan is. A school of thought even wonders if Buhari can conveniently work genuinely with those of other faith considering its former vice president (Tunde Idiagbon) was of the Islamic faith orientation while Bakare is a Muslim by birth before conversion to Christianity. The idea of former Military dictators coming back in civilian garments to position of power is something I frown at. What did they leave behind that they are coming to pick and it’s not that they are seeking higher positions, just the same one they vacated.
OPPORTUNITY: Passion is an ingredient that is essential in every human being, and if the passion shown by Bakare as a critic of Government can be channelled towards its administration if given position of power, they will be a force to reckon with. During His previous stint in power, discipline was a watchword as a nation but truth be said Buhari was a Military dictator then and no sane individual will avoid bowing to the power of the gun trotting soldiers on the road.
THREAT: The ability of the citizenry to absolutely trust this union and marriage of necessity would be the greatest threat to this team. Too many northerners gunning for the post of the president or vice president would lead to fragmentation of votes thereby jeopardising any chance they might have. On a previous stint at power, Buhari picked a Yoruba man as vice president and has done the same this time around. This raises the question ‘does he have anything against other ethnic groups?’ or ‘is being around a particular race more re-assuring for him?’ not to sound racist, strategy demands that since most candidates have left the Igbo tribe out of the equation, their block vote would be decisive in determining who gets the nod eventually.
Some sections of the populace see Bakare as a prophet of doom considering His previous utterances and visions ‘having said Obasanjo would not see out his presidency’ and his many squabbles with respected pastors of Winners chapel and Redeemed church, two organisations with millions as devoted followers. How these puzzle and intrigue in strategy play out in a multi level equation is keeping everyone deeply interested.
IBRAHIM SHEKARAU AND JOHN OYEGUN:
STRENGTH: Governor of kano and former governor of Edo state respectively their combination reflect the ability to stick with the known phrase ‘status quo’ no risk involved. Shekarau has since the debates shown qualities that have endeared him to some critics as an eloquent and an articulated aspirant that knows his onions. In Oyegun, he possesses a vice that has been in the main stream politics since the second republic. Before I decided to write this piece, it would have been impossible to write 5 straight lines concerning the person Shekarau but having taking time out to study, I realise he possesses some qualities that make him a popular figure in his domain. A mathematics teacher, he rose through the ranks through hard work and is seen as able to tolerate opposing views, oppositions and people of other religion.
WEAKNESS: Sticking to the status quo with the choice of Shekarau and Oyegun leaves much to be desired. Opinion polls show people are looking to depart from this present crop of leader, they are looking for new ideas, thinking and progressiveness. How much popularity they pull and enjoy with the electorate would be tested at the polls.
OPPORTUNITY: Presenting a team that has been around since the second republic has its benefits as they would not be learning on the job. The man Shekarau can use the policies that have endeared him to the population of Kano as a spring-board to effect change nationwide.
THREAT: I am of the opinion that this team is open to the same threat as others, ability to summon resources for campaign that would publicise his policies and track record to the populace is missing, fragmentation of votes and lack of trust from young voters might also be a disadvantage.
In summary, I will not be naming a candidate but will leave that to you guys the readers though going by what I see on ground, ability to reach the nook and crannies of the states would be a big factor and one party seems to be doing that through its campaign strategy. It is so sad that at this stage, age and time, empty promises are all what the campaigns have been about, all the parties are guilty of these, promising security is never the problem, but can you articulate the position of insecurity now and in 3 statements state how it would be curbed. What is the statistics on unemployment? How could the health sector be improved? We are literate not to just listen to promises of ‘I will improve security’, ‘I will reduce unemployment’, and ‘illiteracy will be tackled’. Presidential debate has been dodged and when appearances are made the press ask silly question of individuals seeking to hold the highest public office in the land…..how lame! For a country like Nigeria with a population of around 150 million, just two presidential debates organised…uhmmmm I can see how we the citizenry value paying attention to a leader that can show the ability to lead.
By the time you are reading this write-up, the election should be in full gear or so it seems cause INEC is at it again with improper planning which is making them shift the start of voting for the House of Representative and Senatorial seat from the 2nd to the 9th of April. The Election process has been set in motion for over a year and one wonders why they can’t seem to shake the demon that has been at war with them for years.
Yemi Jegede
Tripen's Odyssey 